Commentary Precious Metals Base Metals Currencies Interest Rates Gold and Silver Forwards Gold USD ATM Option Vols Latest Economic Data Terms and Conditions
Commentary
Metals
-
Asia opening in thin
conditions given the Japanese holiday and immediately looking to
threaten 875 with Crude pushing to new highs above 120.20 early.
Gold running into decent offers at 875 and eventually pulling back
quickly to 871.50 area over the morning. From here light HK buying
kept the market supported throughout the day as the market moved
back above 874 over lunch. Market then choppy for most of the
afternoon before a good round of fund buying swept the market late
in the Asian session. Gold traded from 873 to 878 as we moved into
the London session, and this despite
a falling Euro.
-
Gold continued to edge higher in the London session, with the Euro recovering
slightly from the late Asia sell
off. HK names good sellers at
880.
-
NY
took gold lower first to 872.30 before finding bids as the Euro
and Crude staged a rally. The slow grind higher picked up some
pace when oil went for a run and gold climbed quickly to 880.00.
As oil rallied over $2, gold made its way to 883 highs and found
decent bids under 880 for some time. Market then finally giving
way as profit taking emerged towards the end of the
session.
-
Market running into the 883 resistance level
yesterday, but failing to set the world alight despite a surging
Crude. Gold still a bit lost on its identity here, and unable to
decide whether to follow the inflation story, Crude, or dollar
strength. For now, we look to a strong Crude and commodity complex
in general to lay its support to the yellow metal. And if Euro can
manage to remain resilient and rally from here, gold should find
friends again. 870 support here today, with 885 light resistance
and a topside bias.
-
Base metals remained largely muted on Tuesday
despite the volatility in comex copper on Monday. Copper
immediately offered on the Asia
open, with dealers looking to take advantage of the gap higher in
copper, as well as news that Codelco subcontractors had agreed to
end their 20 day strike. Copper down to 8500 and oscillated around
this level for most part of the Asian and London
sessions.
-
Zinc was the standout metal for the complex on
Tuesday as shorts become increasingly nervous having had very
little value to the downside here. The green metal continues to
remain well bid on dips towards 2200 and with long term support at
2150 and a very short market, the green metal continues to remain
a value buy at these levels. 2320 resistance
now.
FX and General
-
Offshore markets took a more Aud positive view than
Asia had of the RBA's decision to
keep rates on hold . Aud squeezed 35 points to 0.9472, firmed on
the crosses, with Aud/Euro to highs near 0.6120, Aud/Sterling
above 48p, while Aud/Yen neared Y99.40
.
-
Aud's performance more impressive in the face of
these USD gains. Euro
hardest hit, taking out stops sub 1.5500 to slide to a low of
1.5452 . Usd/Yen also rallied to highs of Y105.13 , while
Sterling lost 40 points to lose
its grip on the 1.97 handle.
-
The USD was buoyed by UBS' Q1 loss, the announcement
of another 5,500 job losses, the exit from the US
municipals business, and the sale of its subprime holdings to
Blackrock [for USD 22 bio].
-
UK Services PMI disappoints, down 1.7 points to
50.4, well short of 51.6 forecasts, and to the lowest level since
March 2003. Costs still of concern, with input prices to 67.3 and
the highest level since records began in 1996. Still, Sterling fell
another 60 points after the numbers to hit session lows of 1.9635
. Aud/Sterling to fresh decade highs of 0.4822
.
-
Eurozone Services PMI is confirmed at 51.9, a
fraction ahead of March. Germany the standout, French growth
wanes, Italy
contracts for the 5th straight month, while Spain and Ireland contract at
record rates. Little reaction to this, but another high PPI from
the Eurozone, up 0.7% m/m and 5.7% y/y [from 5.4% y/y in Feb], and
record highs in oil [at USD 120.93/bbl] saw USD give back all of
its gains.
-
A $2.2 bln loss by Fannie Mae in Q1 compounds the
USD's problems. Euro proceeds to
rally nearly 100 points to 1.5547 in the lead up to NY open.
Usd/Yen dribbled off 70 points to Y104.37 lows . Aud's
out-performance evaporated. Aud/Usd down to 0.9432, Aud/Yen fell
80 points to Y98.60 levels, and 30-40 points given back against
Euro and Sterling.
-
The USD finally finds a bottom in the NY morning as
stocks reverse their earlier sell-off. Rumours Yahoo and Microsoft
will resume merger talks again, the relaxation of some regulatory
requirements on Fannie Mae and energy and raw material stocks
grinding higher (as oil is again on the ascend, to $122 a barrel)
all do their bit to lift the bourses. Not before Euro trades to
session highs of 1.5593, Usd/Jpy plumbs the depths of Y104 and Aud
punches through stops to 0.9498
highs.
-
With a lack of data in the US to give a definitive flavour to
the session, upon Europe's
departure, the NY market settles in to very quiet trading. The Aud
remains bid near 95cents. Usd/Jpy scrambles back to mid-Y104
levels . Euro gives back much of its session gains, back under
1.5540.
-
US
Treasuries mixed throughout the day eyeing the ebb and flow of
equity markets.
-
RBNZ Financial Stability Report released as we write
this report - RBNZ says risks of sharper slowdown if global crisis
spreads and Kiwi high with risk of sharp fall. Initial reaction
kiwi moving 15/20 pts lower.
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Precious Metals| | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | | Gold Far East | 874.00/50 | 876.75/25 | 871.40/90 | 876.75/25 | * | | Gold London | 876.20/70 | 879.30/80 | 874.00/50 | 877.50/00 | * | | Gold New York | 874.00/50 | 882.50/00 | 872.30/80 | 879.30/80 | * | | AUD/Gold 24HR | 922.25/3.25 | 932.00/3.00 | 920.00/1.00 | 921.50/2.50 | * | | Silver 24HR | 16.73/77 | 16.95/99 | 16.65/69 | 16.78/82 | * |
| Gold & Silver Fixes | AM: 878.00 PM: 880.00 | SIL: 16.70 | | COMEX Open Interest | XAU: 432,303 (+3,669) | XAG: 120,623 (-314) | | Gold & Silver EFPs | Gold(Jun): 1.00/1.20 | Sil(Jul):
5.50/6.50 |
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Base Metals (24 Hours)| | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | | LME Copper 3Mth | 8528 | 8565 | 8422 | 8521 | * | | LME Aluminium 3Mth | 2941 | 2985 | 2910 | 2974 | * | | LME Zinc 3Mth | 2220 | 2280 | 2215 | 2280 | * | | LME Nickel 3Mth | 28749 | 28950 | 28350 | 28950 | * |
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Currencies| | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | | AUD/USD (5pm NY) | 0.9463/66 | 0.9506/09 | 0.9430/33 | 0.9495/98 | * | | EUR/USD (5pm NY) | 1.5497/00 | 1.5593/96 | 1.5450/53 | 1.5529/32 | * | | USD/JPY (5pm NY) | 104.92/95 | 105.12/15 | 104.00/03 | 104.73/76 | * |
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Interest Rates| | Close | Net Change | | US Euro (mon) | 97.370 | +0.035 | | US 30yr Bond (mon) | 115*06 | -0*24 | | Sycom 3yr Bond (mon) | 93.570 | +0.03 | | Sycom 10yr Bond (mon) | 93.615 | +0.02 |
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Gold & Silver Forwards| | Gold Forwards (USD) | Silver Forwards (USD) | | 1 month | 2.48/2.63 | 2.45/2.95 | | 2 month | 2.48/2.63 | 2.45/2.95 | | 3 month | 2.45/2.60 | 2.45/2.95 | | 6 month | 2.45/2.60 | 2.50/3.00 | | 12 month | 2.55/2.70 | 2.50/3.00 |
Gold USD ATM Option Vols| | Gold USD ATM Option Vols | | 1 month | 21.25/22.75 | | 2 month | 21.45/22.95 | | 3 month | 21.65/23.15 | | 6 month | 21.95/23.45 | | 12 month | 22.15/23.65 |
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